What Sales Forecasts Miss About Real Pipeline Health
At the beginning of every quarter, sales leaders present their forecast to the board. It is a neat and tidy spreadsheet, built on CRM data, showing a healthy pipeline that comfortably exceeds the quarterly target. Yet, by the end of the quarter, the team has missed its number. This is an incredibly common story. The problem is that a standard sales forecast is a quantitative snapshot that completely misses the qualitative reality of the pipeline. It tells you the "what" (the numbers), but not the "why" (the health).
A weather forecast showing sunshine while it's actually raining on a sales chart.
Why CRM-Based Forecasts Are Flawed
A forecast based purely on deal stage and probability is built on a foundation of assumptions and "happy ears."
- Subjective Staging: The criteria for moving a deal from "Discovery" to "Demo" is often subjective and inconsistent across reps.
- Inflated Deal Sizes: Reps, under pressure to build pipeline, often attach optimistic deal values to early-stage opportunities.
- "Stale" Opportunities: The forecast includes deals that have had no meaningful activity for weeks but are kept in the pipeline to make it look healthier.
The result is a forecast that is more of a wish-list than a prediction. To get a real sense of pipeline health, you need to look beyond the numbers and analyze the qualitative signals.
Qualitative Signals of a Healthy Pipeline
Instead of just asking "What stage is it in?", sales leaders should be asking these questions during their pipeline reviews.
1. Is There a "Mutual Action Plan" in Place?
A deal without a clear, documented plan with the prospect is not a real deal. A Mutual Action Plan (MAP) is a shared document that outlines every step, from demo to legal review to final sign-off, with dates and owners for each. A pipeline full of deals without MAPs is a pipeline full of hope, not commitments.
2. Are We "Multi-Threaded"?
Relying on a single champion in the prospect's organization is the single biggest point of failure in B2B deals. If that person leaves, gets busy, or loses political capital, the deal is dead. A healthy deal is "multi-threaded," meaning your sales rep has built relationships with multiple stakeholders, including the Economic Buyer, the Technical Buyer, and the end-users.
A pipeline review that doesn't ask "Who else are we talking to in the account?" is a waste of time.
3. What is the Cadence of Engagement?
Look at the activity timeline in the CRM. Is there a steady cadence of two-way communication? Or is it a series of one-way "just checking in" emails from your rep? Healthy deals have momentum, with both the buyer and seller actively engaged in moving the process forward.
Conclusion
Your CRM forecast is a lagging indicator of past activity. The real health of your pipeline lies in the qualitative factors that signal true buyer commitment. By shifting your pipeline reviews to focus on Mutual Action Plans, multi-threading, and engagement cadence, you move from a reactive forecaster to a proactive deal strategist. You stop looking at the pipeline and start actively managing it. That is the difference between hitting your number and just hoping for it.